Chris Tobolski

When it comes to the qualifier rankings let’s start with what they are and what they aren’t. Simply put, they are meant to be fun and at some level informative. They are not based on a true mathematical formula or algorithm put together by MIT experts. They are biased in the sense that the info used comes from Vballrecruiter.com’s national rankings. The factors taken into consideration are 1) percent chance of qualifying; 2) number of eventual qualifiers; 3) percentage of teams eventually qualified from the field; 4) number of nationally-ranked teams; 5) percentage of nationally-ranked teams in the field; and 6) average ranking of those teams. There are some obvious flaws with the way the averages are generated. For example, coming up with the chance of qualifying is done from subtracting the number of teams already having a bid from the number of teams in the field and then using the number of bids available and dividing that by the number of teams without a bid. This, of course, doesn’t take into account the odds of trickle down and get into the nitty-gritty of that. However, I do feel there is a lot to be taken from the overall rankings and that even though the system is far from perfect it is fairly reflective of the strength of each individual qualifiers. Generally speaking, the rankings match up with the “eye test” if you will of the qualifiers. There was no doubt looking at the 17 Open division at the Salt Lake Showdown that it was extremely difficult this season and therefore it wasn’t surprising to see it average out as the toughest in 17 Open in 2025. Conversely, Big South didn’t seem as strong as it has been in other years and it showed in the rankings, as Big South averaged out as the least toughest qualifier in 17 Open in 2025. You can view the rankings, as well as a full breakdown, below. 17 OPEN RANKINGS 1. Salt Lake Showdown 2. Lone Star Classic T3. Windy City T3. MEQ 5. Sunshine Classic 6. PNQ 7. Show Me 8. Northern Lights 9. NEQ 10. Far Western 11. Red Rock Rave 12. Big South   *** FULL BREAKDOWN  1. SALT LAKE SHOWDOWN (Avg 2.8) Number of Teams: 41 Bids Available: 3 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 10 Chance of Qualifying: 9.7 (8th) Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 14 (t1st) Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 34.1 (3rd) Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 18 (t2nd) Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 43.9 (1st) Average of Ranked Teams: 21.7 (t2nd) *** 2. LONE STAR CLASSIC (Avg 3.7) Number of Teams: 47 Bids Available: 3 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 10 Chance of Qualifying: 8.1 (6th) Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 14 (t1st) Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 29.8 (4th) Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 19 (1st) Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 40.4 (4th) Average of Ranked Teams: 25.3 (6th) *** T3. WINDY CITY (Avg 5) Number of Teams: 44 Bids Available: 3 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 9 Chance of Qualifying: 8.6 (7th) Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 12 (4th) Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 27.3 (5th) Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 14 (4th) Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 31.8 (8th) Average of Ranked Teams: 21.7 (t2nd) *** T3. MEQ Number of Teams: 48 (Avg 5) Bids Available: 3 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 3 Chance of Qualifying: 6.7 (4th) Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 13 (3rd) Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 27.1 (6th) Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 18 (t2nd) Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 37.5 (5th) Average of Ranked Teams: 25.6 (7th) *** 5. SUNSHINE CLASSIC (Avg 5.7) Number of Teams: 48 Bids Available: 3 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0 Chance of Qualifying: 6.25 (1st) Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 10 (5th) Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 20.8 (10th) Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 13 (t5th) Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 27.1 (9th) Average of Ranked Teams: 23.1 (4th) *** 6. PNQ (Avg 6.2) Number of Teams: 24 Bids Available: 3 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0 Chance of Qualifying: 12.5 (11th) Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 9 (t6th) Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 37.5 (2nd) Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 10 (t8th) Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 41.7 (t2nd) Average of Ranked Teams: 26.3 (8th) *** 7. SHOW ME (Avg 7.2) Number of Teams: 40 Bids Available: 3 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 4 Chance of Qualifying: 7.5 (5th) Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 9 (t6th) Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 22.5 (8th) Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 13 (t5th) Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 32.5 (7th) Average of Ranked Teams: 27.8 (12th) *** 8. NORTHERN LIGHTS (Avg 7.3) Number of Teams: 28 Bids Available: 3 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0 Chance of Qualifying: 10.7 (9th) Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 7 (9th) Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 25 (7th) Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 10 (t8th) Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 35.7 (6th) Average of Ranked Teams: 23.2 (5th) *** 9. NEQ (Avg 7.7) Number of Teams: 46 Bids Available: 3 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0 Chance of Qualifying: 6.5 (t2nd) Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 9 (t6th) Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 19.6 (11th) Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 12 (7th) Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 26.1 (10th) Average of Ranked Teams: 27.6 (10th) *** 10. FAR WESTERN (Avg 8) Number of Teams: 12 Bids Available: 2 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 1 Chance of Qualifying: 18.2 (12th) Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 5 (12th) Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 41.7 (1st) Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 5 (12th) Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 41.7 (t2nd) Average of Ranked Teams: 26.6 (9th) *** 11. RED ROCK (Avg 8.7) Number of Teams: 28 Bids Available: 3 Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 1 Chance of Qualifying: 11.1 (10th) Number

We are likely to learn the at-large recipients this week. Below, we give a rundown of 17 Open. There were three bids available. Sudden Impact 17 Storm already received one of them. That means there are two more spots to fill. We’ve listed the top candidates in our estimation in hopes of seeing which clubs have the best chances. 17 OPEN (3 Bids) Wave 17 Juliana (9-11) 15th Salt Lake; 7th PNQ Pros: Has the most wins against the Open field. Cons: Played in two qualifiers. Finished outside the Top 10 at Salt Lake. *** Pohaku 17-1 (8-8) 21st NEQ; 15th Show Me; 13th Lone Star Pros: Has the best winning percentage against the Open field and the second-most victories. Cons: Didn’t place well during qualifying season. *** A5 17-1 Calvin (6-9) 15th Sunshine; 4th NEQ; 20th Windy City; 5th Big South Pros: One of the better records and third-most wins against the Open field. Placed very highly at two qualifiers. Cons: Didn’t finish very high at its last qualifier in Chicago. *** No Name 17 Sarah (5-8) 5th Northern Lights; 9th Sunshine; 17th Show Me; 15th Lone Star Pros: Two Top-10 showings plus a decent record against the Open field. Cons: Didn’t finish strong in qualifying season with two finishes outside the Top 10. *** GP 17 Rox (5-11) 9th Sunshine; 19th NEQ; 17th Salt Lake; 25th Big South Pros: A solid showing at Sunshine a respectable record against the Open field. Cons: Three placings out of the Top 15 at its final three qualifiers. *** Rev 17-1 Raptors (4-9) 21st MEQ; 9th Show Me; 9th Big South Pros: Two strong showings at Show Me and Big South. Cons: Not as good a record against the Open field as others in the mix. Low showing at MEQ. *** Sudden Impact 17 Storm (4-10)* 9th NEQ; 4th PNQ; 9th Salt Lake; 21st Lone Star Pros: At first qualified at PNQ, but a disqualification from another team forced Storm into a third-place match, which it lost. Decent record against the Open field, plus three Top-10 finishes. Cons: Finished 21st at Lone Star, the toughest qualifier it played in. *already received at-large *** Hou Stellar 17 Elite (4-14) 5th MEQ; 35th Salt Lake; 9th Lone Star Pros: Two Top-10 showings at two of the traditionally toughest qualifiers. Cons: Really low showing at Salt Lake. Win percentage against Open field. *** STVA 17 Mizuno (3-11) 13th Northern Lights; 5th PNQ; 20th Salt Lake; 17th Lone Star Pros: Finishing fifth at PNQ. Cons: Win percentage against the Open field. Three finishes outside the Top 10. *** Academy 17 Diamond (2-8) 4th Sunshine; 17th NEQ; 5th Big South; 15th Lone Star Pros: Finished one spot out of qualifying at Sunshine, plus another solid showing at Big South. Cons: Lack of wins plus win percentage against the field.