Up next in our Open qualifier rankings is the 16s division.
The factors taken into consideration are 1) percent chance of qualifying; 2) number of eventual qualifiers; 3) percentage of teams eventually qualified from the field; 4) number of nationally-ranked teams; 5) percentage of nationally-ranked teams in the field; and 6) average ranking of those teams. Those spots are then added up and divided by six to get an average ranking, with the goal being to get the lowest ranking, thus indicating the qualifier ranked highly in most every category.
It’s hardly an exact science. There are some obvious flaws with the way the averages are generated. For example, coming up with the chance of qualifying is done from subtracting the number of teams already having a bid from the number of teams in the field and then using the number of bids available and dividing that by the number of teams without a bid. This, of course, doesn’t take into account the odds of trickle down and get into the nitty-gritty of that, or whether it’s harder to qualify when no qualified teams are in the field versus when a bunch are in the field. The rankings are also biased and influenced heavily based on our own national rankings. Which the latest release from the month of May is used and not the rankings at the actual time of each qualifier.
At the same time, I do feel the number of eventual Open qualifiers and the percentage of that in terms of the overall field is relevant and a strong reflector of just how difficult a qualifier was or wasn’t. The lower the percentage, the less difficult a qualifier was, as compared to a qualifier that may have 50 percent or more of the field eventual qualify.
I also feel there is a lot to be taken from the overall rankings and that even though the system is far from perfect it is fairly reflective of the strength of each individual qualifier. Generally speaking, the rankings more times than not match up with the “eye test” if you will.
Here are some takeaways from this year’s breakdown. For the second year in a row, Windy City reigned supreme. The qualifier held a similar average between the years, with a 3.5 in 2025 and 3.7 this season. What also was impressive was how wide of a margin Windy City had over the next-closest finishers. Last year, Sunshine checked in at No. 2 with an average of 4. This year though, Salt Lake and Show Me were a distance second averaging 5.2. That Windy City was on the same weekend this year as Big South, Lone Star and West Coast is also of note and just how difficult it remained given those other tournament options.
With that said, spots 2-6 were extremely close, ranging from 5.2-5.7. Those five qualifiers all averaged out strong and showed the overall competitiveness of a big bunch.
There was a drop off at No. 7, as Lone Star averaged 7.3. Last year, Lone Star averaged 5.2 and landed at No. 4.
When it came to 17 Open, both Red Rock and West Coast finished in the Top 5, but both wound up in the bottom half for 16 Open. In fact, West Coast barely missed last place, beating out Pacific Northwest 11.3 to 11.5.
Final Rankings
1. Windy City (Avg 3.7)
T2. Salt Lake Showdown (5.2)
T2. Show Me (5.2)
4. Northern Lights (5.3)
5. Mideast (5.5)
6. Sunshine (5.7)
7. Lone Star Classic (7.3)
8. Boston (7.7)
T9. Northeast (8)
T9. Red Rock Rave (8)
11. Far Western (8.5)
12. Big South (10)
13. West Coast (11.3)
14 Pacific Northwest (11.5)
***
1. WINDY CITY (Avg. 3.7)
2025 ranking: 1, Avg 3.5
Number of Teams: 40
Bids Available: 4
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 8
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 12.5 (T9th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 17 (1st)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 42.5 (1st)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 20 (1st)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 50 (1st)
Average of Ranked Teams: 25.7 (9th)
***
T2. SALT LAKE SHOWDOWN (Avg. 5.2)
2025 ranking: 6, Avg 6.2
Number of Teams: 40
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 11
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 10.4 (7th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 14 (4th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 35 (5th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 15 (4th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 37.5 (5th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 24.1 (6th)
***
T2. SHOW ME (Avg. 5.2)
2025 ranking: 9, Avg 7.2
Number of Teams: 40
Bids Available: 4
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 10
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 13.3 (11th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 16 (2nd)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 40 (4th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 17 (3rd)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 42.5 (3rd)
Average of Ranked Teams: 25.1 (8th)
***
4. NORTHERN LIGHTS (Avg. 5.3)
2025 ranking: 7, Avg 6.5
Number of Teams: 24
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 2
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 13.6 (12th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 10 (T8th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 41.7 (T2nd)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 11 (6th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 45.8 (2nd)
Average of Ranked Teams: 19.2 (2nd)
***
5. MIDEAST (Avg. 5.5)
2025 ranking: 3, Avg 4.8
Number of Teams: 48
Bids Available: 4
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 2
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 8.7 (3rd)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 15 (3rd)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 31.3 (T7th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 19 (2nd)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 39.6 (4th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 30.3 (14th)
***
6. SUNSHINE CLASSIC (Avg. 5.7)
2025 ranking: 2, Avg 4
Number of Teams: 48
Bids Available: 4
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 8.3 (1st)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 12 (T5th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 25 (T11th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 14 (5th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 29.2 (7th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 19.7 (5th)
***
7. LONE STAR CLASSIC (Avg. 7.3)
2025 ranking: 4, Avg 5.2
Number of Teams: 24
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 7
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 17.6 (14th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 10 (T8th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 41.7 (T2nd)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 8 (T10th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 33.3 (6th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 19.6 (4th)
***
8. BOSTON (Avg. 7.7)
2025 ranking: n/a
Number of Teams: 47
Bids Available: 4
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 8.5 (2nd)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 12 (T5th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 25.6 (10th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 10 (T7th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 21.3 (12th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 26.4 (10th)
***
T9. NORTHEAST (Avg. 8)
2025 ranking: 11, Avg 8.2
Number of Teams: 45
Bids Available: 4
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 3
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 9.5 (6th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 10 (T8th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 22.2 (13th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 10 (T7th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 22.2 (11th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 19.3 (3rd)
***
T9. RED ROCK RAVE (Avg. 8)
2025 ranking: 5, Avg 5.3
Number of Teams: 32
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 9.4 (T4th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 9 (11th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 28.1 (9th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 9 (9th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 28.1 (8th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 24.9 (7th)
***
11. FAR WESTERN (Avg. 8.5)
2025 ranking: 10, Avg 7.8
Number of Teams: 32
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 7
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 12 (8th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 11 (7th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 34.4 (6th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 8 (T10th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 25 (T9th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 27.9 (11th)
***
12. BIG SOUTH (Avg. 10)
2025 ranking: 8, Avg 6.7
Number of Teams: 34
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 2
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 9.4 (T4th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 5 (T13th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 14.7 (14th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 3 (14th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 8.8 (14th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 11.7 (1st)
***
13. WEST COAST (Avg. 11.3)
2025 ranking: n/a
Number of Teams: 16
Bids Available: 2
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 2
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 14.3 (13th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 5 (T13th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 31.3 (T7th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 4 (13th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 25 (T9th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 30 (13th)
***
14. PACIFIC NORTHWEST (Avg. 11.5)
2025 ranking: 12, Avg 10.3
Number of Teams: 24
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0
Percent Chance of Qualifying: 12.5 (T9th)
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 6 (12th)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 25 (T11th)
Number of Ranked Teams from Vballrecruiter Top 50: 5 (12th)
Percent of Ranked Teams in Field: 20.8 (13th)
Average of Ranked Teams: 28.2 (12th)
