The USAV Girls Junior National Championships are still weeks away. Yet, in between is the AAU national championships, which begin next week. That basically leaves us this week before moving onto to our national championship coverage from Orlando and then Chicago. It’s a perfect time to check in on what qualifying season was like in terms of the strength of each national qualifier. There were 12 total and beginning with the 17 Open division we take a look at them in hopes of determining an order of strength.
The method we used was hardly perfect and is relative of course. The factors we used to determine the list we came up with are 1) Number of eventual Open qualifiers; 2) Percent of Eventual Open qualifiers from the overall field; 3) The number of ranked teams from vballrecruiter.com’s Top 50; 4) the average rank of the teams from the Top 50. We took the average of those four rankings and listed them from 1-12 for each qualifier.
The full breakdown is below, with comments.
17 OPEN
SHOW ME (*Average: 3.25) (1)
Number of Teams: 30 (t7)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 5
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 11 (overall rank – t3)*
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 37 (overall – rank 1)*
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 14 (overall rank – t3)*
Average Rank (of Top 50 teams): 24 (overall rank – t6)*
Comment: Show Me has a compelling case to be considered the toughest qualifier of the season. First off, it had the highest eventual Open qualifier percentage at 37. So even though the field was a bit smaller, no doubt it was competitive. That’s also proven by the average rank of 24. That’s tied with Red Rock for sixth-best. Only two qualifiers had more teams from our Top 50 at the time than Show Me. Put it all together and it makes Show Me the best, which was also backed based on the four averages used.
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MEQ (Avg: 4) (t2)
Number of Teams: 48 (1)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 3
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 14 (1)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 29 (t5)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 17 (1)
Average Rank: 23 (5)
Comment: There’s no question MEQ belongs in the discussion as the best qualifier. It’s hard to say MEQ was the best though because the field was so big. There were 14 eventual teams to make Open, but that is still less than a third of the field. Still, 14 is a big number, as that is well more than a third of the Open field we’ll see in Chicago. There was also some breathing room at MEQ because there were three qualified teams, meaning trickle down could reach sixth. That helped too. But the average rank of 23 is fifth-best, proving it was one of the more difficult qualifiers.
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LONE STAR (Avg: 4) (t2)
Number of Teams: 42 (3)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 9
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 11 (t3)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 26 (t7)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 14 (t3)
Average Rank: 21 (3)
Comment: Lone Star has an argument as the toughest qualifier because there were nine teams present with bids already. That meant there could’ve been a shutout when it came to bids. Having 11 eventual qualifiers in the field is a solid number, though its percentage is lower than Windy City. But there’s also the fact that Lone Star was the only qualifier to produce any at-larges, supplying both in play this season. That’s tough to argue with. Also elevating Lone Star to the Top 3 is the fact its average rank from the Top 50 was third-best at 21.
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WINDY CITY (Avg: 4.75) (4)
Number of Teams: 41 (4)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 7
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 12 (2)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 29 (t5)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 15 (2)
Average Rank: 28 (10)
Comment: Windy City was an impressive qualifier from the standpoint that only MEQ boasted more teams from our Top 50 at the time. Windy City was also a tougher qualifier based on having seven previously-qualified teams. On the other hand, Windy City was middle of the pack in both eventual Open qualifier percentage and average rank. Still, the averages place Windy City just outside the top three.
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NORTHERN LIGHTS (Average: 5.25) (5)
Number of Teams: 22 (12)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 8 (8)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 36 (2)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 11 (7)
Average Rank: 22 (4)
Comment: Given Northern Lights was up first and there was no trickle-down in play, plus more than a third of the field eventually qualified for Open, made Northern Lights strong this season. Only Show Me had a higher percentage of eventual qualified teams. Plus, the rank of teams from our Top 50 averaging out at 22 was the fourth-highest from all the qualifiers. Given those two factors, you could make a case for Northern Lights being the toughest of the season. But no doubt it was among the most difficult.
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RED ROCK RAVE (5.75) (t6)
Number of Teams: 39 (t5)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 1
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 10 (t5)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 26 (t7)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 12 (t5)
Average Rank: 24 (t6)
Comment: Red Rock was among the stronger qualifiers, but finishes a little lower than expected That’s because even though there were a good number of eventual qualifiers with 10, the field was bigger at 39. Red Rock also had a strong average rank with 24, which was sixth-best. But it was middle of the pack in all the numbers and thus comes in at the middle of the pack.
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BIG SOUTH (Avg: 5.75) (t6)
Number of Teams: 46 (2)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 7
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 10 (t5)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 22 (11)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 12 (t5)
Average Rank: 17 (2)
Comment: Big South featured many top-ranked teams, so it was top heavy. And while less than a quarter of the field wound up in Open, qualifying here was no easy task given seven teams showed up already owning bids. That meant that it was not guaranteed that all three bids would go out, and that always changes things when that’s possible. Big South was a lot like Sunshine. It had the second-lowest eventual qualified percentage, but the second-highest average rank from the Top 50. Together, it makes Big South tough to rank.
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PNQ (Avg: 6.25) (8)
Number of Teams: 30 (t7)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 1
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 10 (t5)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 33 (3)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 9 (9)
Average Rank: 27 (t8)
Comment: PNQ had a greater percentage of eventual qualified teams in the overall field than both MEQ and Red Rock and nearly matched Show Me. At the same time, the field didn’t feature the same highly-ranked teams so the overall competition wasn’t quite the same as the average rank of 27 shows. Still, with only one qualified team in play, earning a bid in this division at PNQ proved more difficult than in recent years.
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SUNSHINE (Avg: 7.5) (9)
Number of Teams: 39 (t5)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 1
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 7 (t9)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 18 (12)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 10 (8)
Average Rank: 11 (1)
Comment: The depth in 17 Open fell compared to last year. Having just seven eventual Open teams in a field of 39 is not a strong ratio. However, there was only one team with a bid so qualifying meant finishing in the top four, which was no easy task given the average rank of Top-50 teams competing. Sunshine having an average rank of 11 blows away any other qualifier. Big South – at 17 – was the only other qualifier to crack an average of 20. What’s difficult to weigh is that against the fact there were just 18 percent of the field to qualify for Open. The no other qualifier was below 20.
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NEQ (Avg: 8) (10)
Number of Teams: 23 (12)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 7 (t9)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 30 (4)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: (11)
Average Rank: 27 (t8)
Comment: Having no trickle-down to rely on always ups the stakes. That was the case NEQ this year. There was a decent number of eventual qualifiers compared to the smaller field, but the average rank of 27 showed the field wasn’t as tough as others.
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SALT LAKE (Avg: 9.75) (11)
Number of Teams: 27 (10)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 2
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 7 (t9)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 26 (t7)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 5 (12)
Average Rank: 29 (11)
Comment: Salt Lake doesn’t quite stack up to the others. It doesn’t match Show Me or Big South in percentage of eventual Open teams. It also was among the lower eventual qualifier percentage and average team rank. But it was limited in trickle down, so teams didn’t have a lot of wiggle room.
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FAR WESTERN (Avg: 10.25) (12)
Number of Teams: 30 (t7)
Bids Available: 3
Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 3
Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 7 (t9)
Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 23 (10)
Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 8 (10)
Average Rank: 30 (12)
Comment: While Far Western had its excitement based on the at-large picture that came with it, the numbers don’t support Far Western being among the stronger qualifiers. In fact, the average rank of 30 from our Top 50 is the lowest of the 12. Also, the eventual Open qualifier percentage is the third-lowest.
